Package theft is common in the US, but how common depends on who you ask. The three most-cited 2025 studies estimate anywhere from 37 million to 228 million stolen packages a year, worth between $8 billion and $15 billion. They agree on the pattern: theft hits a large share of households, peaks in the holiday months, and the cost often lands on the retailer.
All figures below come from the publishers’ own reports, linked at the end. For how to handle stolen packages in your store, see the order protection guide.
How many packages are stolen each year?
| Study | Packages stolen | Estimated losses | Average value | Who was surveyed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SafeWise (2025) | 104.3 million (past 12 months) | $14.9 billion | $143 per package | 2,500 theft victims, 50 per state, August 2025 |
| Omnisend (2025) | About 228 million | $12.8 billion | About $101 lost per affected household | 1,000 US adults, combined with FBI crime data |
| Security.org (2025) | 37 million (projected for the year) | Over $8 billion | About $222 per package | 3,307 US adults, October 2025 |
Why the gap? The studies ask different questions, weight results differently and project to the national level in different ways. Omnisend blends survey answers with FBI crime data; Security.org projects from recent theft rates; SafeWise surveys people who have experienced theft. Treat any single number as an estimate, and the range as the real answer.
How many households are affected?
- SafeWise: 31% of respondents had a package theft incident in the past 12 months.
- Omnisend: nearly 1 in 3 US households (29.7%) experienced theft in the prior year.
- Security.org: one in four Americans, about 64 million people, have had a package stolen at some point, and 9 million adults in just the last three months.
Theft also varies a lot by place. Omnisend found Maryland and Colorado had the highest exposure, at roughly 50% and 41% of households.
Is package theft going up or down?
SafeWise’s 2025 figure is a 13% decline from its 2023 estimate of 120 million packages, which it describes as the first decline in years. The other two studies do not give a directly comparable trend, so one year of decline is a signal to watch, not a settled trend.
When does package theft peak?
The holidays. In Omnisend’s data, December was the highest month, with 27.2% of theft victims reporting an incident then, and November and December together accounted for nearly half of the year’s heightened theft risk. Security.org adds that 12% of shoppers, about 31 million Americans, have had a gift for someone else stolen.
What gets stolen?
Omnisend found clothing, shoes and jewelry was the most stolen category in 2025, at 37.2% of thefts. Small, valuable, resellable items are the most attractive targets.
What does this mean for online stores?
The cost of porch piracy rarely stays with the thief or the carrier. Omnisend found 62% of victims received a refund or a free replacement, with retailers absorbing an estimated $7.9 billion. Carriers usually treat a package scanned as delivered as done, so stores end up deciding who pays.
Three practical takeaways:
- Expect theft claims, especially in Q4. Plan staffing and stock for reships in November and December.
- Decide your rule in advance. Write down when you cover theft; our lost and stolen package policy guide includes a template.
- Fund the cost. An optional protection fee lets the customers who want cover pay for it. See is shipping protection worth it and Sam Shipping Protection.
Frequently asked questions
How many packages are stolen each year in the US?
It depends on the study. SafeWise estimates 104.3 million packages in the 12 months to August 2025, Omnisend about 228 million in 2025, and Security.org projects 37 million for 2025. The gap comes from different survey questions and methods.
When is package theft most common?
Around the holidays. In Omnisend's 2025 data, December was the peak month and November and December together accounted for nearly half of the year's heightened theft risk.
Who pays when a package is stolen?
Often the retailer. Omnisend found 62% of victims received a refund or a free replacement, with retailers absorbing an estimated $7.9 billion.
How can stores reduce the cost of porch piracy?
Offer optional shipping protection so customers who want cover pay for it, require signatures on high-value orders, offer pick-up points, and keep a clear stolen-package policy.
Sources
Part of our guide: Order protection →